Tariffs, Whiskey, and Wine: How Trade Policy Is Reshaping Global Alcohol Markets
Jan 13, 2026
How Trump-era tariffs are impacting whiskey, European wine, and global spirits exports
Tariffs rarely show up as simple price changes in the alcohol market. Instead, they tend to disrupt distribution, shift regional demand, and slow the movement of whiskey and wine across borders.
Since the return of Trump-era tariff policies in 2025, trade friction has again become a defining force for spirits and wine producers. The impact is no longer hypothetical. Export volumes, pricing behavior, and supply chain decisions now reflect real pressure, particularly across Europe, Canada, and the United States.
For collectors, investors, and anyone tracking the rare whiskey and fine wine market, trade policy has become more than a political headline. It now plays a structural role in how alcohol assets move, trade, and retain value.
Why Europe and Canada Matter Most
Europe and Canada remain the most important export corridors in global alcohol trade, a fact reinforced by 2024 data.
In 2024, U.S. spirits exports reached approximately $2.4 billion, up roughly 10% year over year as importers accelerated purchasing ahead of renewed tariff risk. The European Union accounted for nearly half of that export value, making it the single largest destination for American spirits. When combined with Canada, the UK, and Japan, these markets represented roughly 70% of total U.S. spirits export value.
Canada also plays an outsized role across categories. In 2024, Canadian imports of U.S. wine reached approximately $435 million, representing roughly 36–41% of total U.S. wine export value, making Canada the largest export market for U.S. wine. The European Union, as a region, received roughly $168 million of U.S. wine exports during the same year.
From the European side of the ledger, the U.S. market remains equally critical. In 2024, the EU exported approximately €4.88 billion worth of wine to the United States, underscoring how deeply intertwined these markets remain.
Taken together, these figures show that Europe and Canada are not just historically important. They continue to dominate value flows in global alcohol trade, which makes tariff disruptions in these corridors especially consequential for producers, distributors, collectors, and investors.
Case Study 1: The EU Retaliation (2018–2021)
In 2018, the Trump administration imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum. The European Union responded with a 25% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey.
What the Data Shows
American whiskey exports to the EU fell from $552 million in 2018 to approximately $440 million in 2021, a decline of roughly 20%
Over the same period:
Total U.S. spirits exports fell 12%
American whiskey exports fell 18%
When the tariff was suspended between 2021 and 2022, exports recovered quickly. EU-bound American whiskey exports rose from $439 million in 2021 to $699 million in 2024, an increase of nearly 60%.
Consumer demand never disappeared. The bottleneck was distribution. Once trade friction eased, exports normalized.
Case Study 2: U.S. Tariffs on European Wine (2025–2026)
In 2025, the U.S. introduced a 15% tariff on most European Union imports, including wine. Unlike earlier tariff threats, the effects are now visible in shipment volumes, pricing behavior, and exporter revenue.
Italy
The U.S. accounts for roughly 24% of Italy’s total wine exports.
Following the tariff:
Italian industry groups estimated €317 million in revenue risk from the U.S. market
Over 366 million bottles shipped to the U.S. were exposed to the new tariff environment
By late 2025, Italian wine exports to the U.S. had fallen by approximately €110 million, driven by higher retail prices, importer hesitation, and portfolio rationalization by U.S. distributors
France
France’s exposure is concentrated in premium categories such as Champagne and Bordeaux.
Even without the most extreme tariff threats being enacted, the 15% duty led to:
Retail price increases of 15–25% on many French wines
Softer demand in the $20–$40 price range
Importers trimming French SKUs in favor of domestic and New World alternatives
How Wine Tariffs Affect the Market
Tariffs influence wine through three main channels:
Price passthrough, with wholesale prices rising roughly $0.80+ per gallon
Inventory hesitation, as importers slowed purchasing ahead of enforcement
Consumer substitution toward U.S., Chilean, and Australian wines
The result has been fewer SKUs on shelves, thinner inventories, and lower export volumes.
Case Study 3: Canada and the Collapse of U.S. Spirits Exports
Canada provides the clearest real-time example of tariffs acting as a distribution shock rather than a simple tax.
In 2025, escalating U.S.–Canada trade tensions triggered provincial actions that restricted or removed U.S. alcohol from shelves.
What the Data Shows
U.S. spirits exports to Canada fell 85% in Q2 2025, dropping below $10 million
In April 2025 alone:
U.S. spirits sales in Canada declined 68%
Sales of Canadian and other imported spirits rose 3.6%
The issue was not brand rejection. Access disappeared, and demand followed.
What About Scotch Whisky?
Scotch whisky shows how tariffs translate into real economic pressure. The U.S. remains Scotch’s largest export market by value, which makes even modest trade friction especially costly.
During the 2019–2021 U.S. tariffs on Scotch, the Scotch Whisky Association estimated £600 million in lost exports, with U.S.-bound shipments falling roughly 30%.
A similar pattern has emerged in 2025. With the 10% U.S. tariff still in force, Scotch exports have now declined for three consecutive years. In the first half of 2025:
Global Scotch sales fell 2.5%
U.S. Scotch sales dropped approximately 6%
Industry groups estimate the tariff is costing producers around £20 million per month
Because whisky production requires long-term capital commitments, weaker demand has led to inventory accumulation. Distillers have responded by scaling back production, pausing expansion plans, and increasing storage capacity.
What the Numbers Tell Us (2025–2026)
Wine
EU wines face a 15% U.S. tariff
Export volumes down approximately 10%
Wholesale prices up $0.80+ per gallon
Italian exports to the U.S. down €110 million
Spirits
U.S. exports to Canada down 85% in Q2 2025
U.S. exports to the EU down 12%
U.S. exports to the UK down 29%
American whiskey exports down approximately 13%
Scotch sales down 2.5% globally and approximately 6% in the U.S.
Scotch tariff impact estimated at £20 million per month
These figures reflect real changes in trade flows.
What This Means for Collectors and Investors
Tariffs surface most clearly when bottles cross borders. Import duties, customs fees, and higher logistics costs raise total acquisition prices for international buyers, including those purchasing through auction houses.
Over time, this friction reduces cross-border participation. Bid-ask spreads widen, fewer buyers compete globally, and pricing efficiency suffers.
Trade policy now shapes how easily collectors can buy, sell, and move assets.
Where Digital Ownership Changes the Equation
Digital ownership models separate ownership transfer from physical delivery. When assets remain in bonded warehouses, they can change hands without crossing borders, avoiding immediate tariff exposure.
Ownership begins to resemble a financial transaction rather than a logistics event.
While macro risk still exists, digital frameworks reduce how often tariffs interfere with transaction costs, liquidity, cross-border participation, and pricing efficiency.
Why Bonded Warehouses Are Essential
Bonded storage provides the structural foundation for this model. Assets held in bond remain in tariff-neutral status until withdrawn into a consumption market.
As long as the bottle stays in custody, ownership can change without activating import duties or taxes.
This preserves flexibility for collectors and investors who may never intend to take physical delivery.
How This Advantages Dram
Dram’s platform is built around bonded custody, institutional storage, and digital ownership frameworks.
That structure allows participation in the rare spirits market without forcing every transaction through a tariff-exposed import process.
While tariffs still influence global pricing and demand, Dram’s infrastructure minimizes how often they disrupt ownership transfers, market access, liquidity, and cost efficiency.
